Watching the Twitter stream and the blogosphere-think that there PROFESSIONAL RESULTS only way how things are going. We converge, diverge us, PCs are dead, etc. Well a few things I've learned in my decades of life who help me every day and as events Analyst are: 1) Things are changing, but not as fast as you perceive to and 2) everything is not black and white, there are shades of gray. This is particularly important in the art. I foretell that if the types of devices we use are conflicting, uses of these devices, these applications are converging. What I mean is that we move away to have "specialized" devices for specific applications in the broadcast on TV, web browsing on computers, voice communication on handheld computers, for example. Moving forward, all of these applications will be through any device, they converge. As cloud services and streaming becomes the rule in relation to the exception, it will not matter, well, this device gets used, the content will fit any screen sizes, the network or the context. It does't mean that everything works just as well or even on each device that will never happen because of physical restrictions (screen size, input type), but you'll have access to all data on a device . So while the number of devices we use to access data increases, the types of applications and data will be limited by a specific type of device.
People debate the future of the PC today, and many use the example that mainframes are off, put there by the PC, so mobile devices will cause the same. Of course, mainframes are not the primary form factor of choice, but many older organizations that started with mainframes, still have some. Go get in hospitals, banks and many government agencies, they are still struggling with data from the central computer, even if they have adopted PC and server for the last 15-20 years. So this brings us to the first lesson. Things are changing fast, but it will take decades, if ever, before computers are not common in business more. There will always be niche uses or users, which will keep the PC around, like mainframes today. Not everything has to be done on a mobile device. Many thought smartphones eliminate the PC, now they think tablets will do the same. It is interesting that most business users do not replace their PC with a tablet or smartphone they just got bigger bags to carry around additional equipment. And when we begin regularly using kiosks, televisions and our fridge to access the internet or our work or personal data, we will still have our other devices. According to the context, the location, the network, the time we have to access our different-application devices work best for different types of data. That will never change. Just because you can run computer-aided design (CAD) on a smartphone today does't you should. But it is true that we will not need high-end servers or PC to run or access our CAD. We can do it anywhere.
Another device is to evaluate the TV. TVs today have access to the Internet browsers that can surf, you get your e-mail, etc. Do you really need a desktop computer at home more? Perhaps, because most people see television as a passive experience, at least when watching a show or event. Self-direct your show, choose camera angles, stories etc just has not taken off on TV because people just want to relax when in front of one. But people like to use their PC for music and movie editing. PCs are down for sure, but most homes will always keep around for tasks they can not or do not want to do it on other form factors.
So that brings me to lesson two, it is not black and white. I think rather than focus on which shape factor (possibly) dies, the focus should be more on how to access, secure, support and management of data across multiple platforms and the do it the right way. Some people use smartphones, other tablets, PCs, servers and some will still stick to mainframes. Some will require local storage and processing power, all others move to the cloud. It is not just one thing, it's many things. The more things fall apart, the harder they fall together. The more they converge, the more they diverge. Of course, there will always be cases of specializations, but in general, we add new devices, applications and access technologies without leaving never fully legacy behind. Well at least for the next decades. Anyone using a typewriter lately?
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